So, Are You Going to Die in the Next 10 Years?

Would you want to know if you were likely to die in the next 10 years? If you smoke, get winded walking several blocks or have trouble pushing a chair across the room, your wellbeing might be at risk. This is according to a “mortality index” developed by San Francisco researchers for people older than 50.

For the sake of morbid curiosity, you may like to see your test score. However, the researchers have said that almost only doctors will use their 12-item index, as it could help wellness experts to determine whether it’s worth it to give you a costly health screening or medical procedure if you’re unlikely to live 10 more years. If you do take the test, the study authors noted that it’s best to do so with your doctor present, as he or she will be able to tell you what your score means within the context of your own medical history.

According to lead author Dr Marisa Cruz of the University of California, San Francisco, the index ‘wasn’t meant as guidance about how to alter your lifestyle.’ Rather, it is a tool for doctors to use in order to help you understand the pros and cons of such things as rigorous diabetes treatment, colon cancer screening and tests for cervical cancer. If you’re a very ill, older person, and are likely to die before cancer, for example, even develops, painful screenings and treatments may not be safe or appropriate for you.

The index is based on a points system, and the fewer total points you have, the better your chance. Men start with 2 points automatically, and then men and women ages 60 to 64 get 1 point; ages 70 to 74 get 3 points; and 85 or over get 7 points. Then, with the following wellness factors, add two points for each that applies to you: current or previous cancer diagnosis (excluding minor skin cancers), lung disease, heart failure, smoking, difficulty bathing, difficulty managing money because of health or memory problem and difficulty walking several blocks.

Add a further point per each of the following that applies: diabetes or high blood sugar, difficulty pushing large objects (such as a heavy chair) and being thin or normal weight. At the worst end of the index, which was published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, if you have 26 points you have a 95% chance of dying within 10 years. However, if you’ve got a score of 0, you only have a 3% chance of dying within 10 years.