Many of those who write about the future UK energy situation often make reference to “the lights going out”, but for Professor Jonathan Stern, Chairman and senior research fellow, natural gas research programme, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, the outcome is likely to have a far less dramatic effect on the UK’s environmental wellness.
According to Professor Stern, ‘It’s quite correct that a great deal of old coal and nuclear capacity will be retired over the next few years. For the rest of this decade, that will be replaced by as much renewables as can be built (mostly wind) and gas. Most of the gas-fired power generation which is needed has already been built; around 4GW is currently not in operation because it is unprofitable and most of the rest is running at far lower load factors than in previous years. If “the lights threaten to go out”, existing gas-fired generation will run at higher load factors and more can quickly be built.’
Professor Stern argues against environmental writers who assert that we will soon be ‘at the mercy of Russia and Kazakhstan’ as neither country even supplies the UK with any significant volumes of gas. However, the professor does allow that we may soon be more dependent on Norway, the Netherlands, Qatar and perhaps the US for our energy needs. But aren’t we, as a country, working on ways to reduce our dependence on other countries in this area?
‘Towards the end of the decade, the UK may produce some shale gas if drilling and fracking prove to be environmentally acceptable,’ the Professor explains. However, he adds that ‘the volumes will not be great and are unlikely to be “cheap” in comparison to imports. Post 2020, other carbon (with carbon capture and storage) and non-carbon generation options may become available, including increased production of shale gas. Outcomes will depend on costs, and costs will be affected by environmental acceptability and carbon pricing.’
Professor Stern concludes by saying, ‘The future of the UK power sector over the next decade has already been determined: wind and gas may not be the best possible option, but it is far from the worst, in relation to costs and carbon emissions. Apologies for the lack of apocalyptic or visionary sentiments about our future energy situation, but these are simply obscuring rather than illuminating the debate.’
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